How Bayem’s Theorem and the Talpiot Tomb merged

I just thought with the pseudos popping up, this was funny:

We analyze the Talpiot tomb, which has been alleged to be the family tomb of Jesus of Nazareth. Using Bayes’ Theorem, we derive a simple function that estimates the probability that the tomb houses the remains of Jesus and his family. Unfortunately, this function cannot be evaluated exactly, because several of the key parameters are unknown. By using random variables with reasonable probability distributions, we examine the mean behavior and range of the function under a variety of conditions. We conclude that the probability is low (on the order of 2% or less) that the Talpiot tomb is the family tomb of Jesus of Nazareth. (pdf)

Wonder where Carrier got his idea of Bayem’s theorem at?

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3 Replies to “How Bayem’s Theorem and the Talpiot Tomb merged”

  1. Wow, that’s fascinating.
    It addresses well how one might come up with estimates of the probabilities that would get plugged in, based on known statistics (distribution of names in Palestine).

    It seems though that you aren’t finding this to be a valid application of Bayes’s Theorem to historical inquiry?

    1. Actually, I’m not opposed to this considering the rather tangible numbers to plug in. However, suggesting that it can be used to identify whether or not a person lived is another issue.

  2. Anything based on a lie is a lie and the truth always prevails.The Holy blood Holy grail pretend that Jesus escaped death on the cross and married Mary Magdalene.Then Da Vinci code pretend a secret marriage between Jesus and Mary Magdalene and the real blood of the grail is inside Mary based on the painting of the last supper by Leonardo Da Vinci.After that some persons pretend finding Jesus tomb and bones and carried DNA tests! and statistics on names! Their discoveries correspond and support the above fake stories.There is two dangerous lies:the real blood and the marriage of Jesus with Mary Magdalene.For the first one the truth is that real and Holy blood of Jesus is on His forehead and not in the womb of Mary Magdalene.This is revealed in the true story The Coin Of The Temple by Souheil Bayoud.For the second which is the impossibility of marriage of Jesus with Mary Magdalene will be revealed to those writers,false scholars and archaeologists when they bow on their knees with a godly repentance or when feathers come out of their heads.

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