This is a pertinent article — not merely for the current political climate but likewise for the UMC (which seems inexplicably linked to the US).
Even in the War Between the States, there were some pro-Union areas in the Confederacy and pro-Confederate areas in the North. Not a lot, but some. When the ME split in the 1840’s, the border states saw congregations split. But today, it is vastly different.
Any “split” in the UMC will result not in geographical schisms but very likely in congregational splits, AC splits, and jurisdictional splits. It will not be a northern church and a southern church – it will simply be a number of different, small, and dying denominations.
The liberal and progressive denominations will be dead in a decade or two. The more conservative ones will last a bit longer, growing more conservative.
You’ll have one or two succeed – but it will not reach the heyday of American Methodism and will most likely find a way to merge with an existing Wesleyan denomination.
It won’t be a schism, but a shattering.
With the recent actions by annual conferences in New York and Baltimore-Washington, this shattering may happen sooner rather than the slow amputation expected in 2020. Why? Because no longer is General Conference and the majority vote of the conference worth anything.
To that end, I recommend that all churches refuse to pay their apportionments until the Bishops bring to heel those conferences. Yes, I know what this means, but in the end, the covenant is broken — and as history, morality, and ethics have shown, to support covenant breakers is wrong (indeed, Scripture speaks many times of those who abuse vows, promises, and covenants). Further, BOOMs must begin to require a closer accountability to the doctrinal standards of the United Methodist Church. If someone cannot pass muster, honestly and with integrity, they should not be given a pass through. Yes, doctrine does matter. So does a biblical view of covenant making.
If the votes of the elected delegates no longer matter, then it really is anarchy. With anarchy comes the need to hoard your supplies.
God bless and see you on the other side.
Consider the CUP plan, by the way.